By Carter James, Editor in chief  

It’s my favorite time of the year, award season. The one time of the year where I can feel like a sports fan during playoff season.  2025 has been a great year for film and the films competing for awards are genuinely exciting.  

 As a person that spends the entire year keeping up with films that have awards buzz and acclaim, I’ll give you the insight into the films you should be paying attention to come Oscar night on March 15.   

 The idea behind predicting the Oscars is by looking at the statistics of the award season. The academy is made up of people working in the industry, and the individual guilds in the film industry have their own awards ceremonies before the Oscars. Whoever wins the most precursor awards from these guilds usually can give you a good idea of who will win the Oscar,and statistically has for decades.  This year is interesting because the statistics don’t point toward clear frontrunners for every category. 

I have not seen every film nominated for an Oscar this year but have seen the films give you predictions for the biggest awards. My predictions (and personal picks) are for Best Supporting Actress, Best Supporting Actor, Best Adapted Screenplay, Best Screenplay, Best Director, Best Actress, Best Actor and Best Picture.  

Best Supporting Actress 

The first award of the night has now become the hardest award to predict this year. The nominees are Amy Madigan (“Weapons”), Elle Fanning (“Sentimental Value”), Inga IbsdotterLilleaas (“Sentimental Value”), Teyanna Taylor (“One Battle After Another”) and Wunmi Mosaku (“Sinners”).  

Based off of previous awards this season, Madigan is the frontrunner, winning Critic’s Choice Awards and the Actor Awards (formerly Screen Actors Guild Awards). The problem is that only the Actor awards have an overlap with the Academy. A viable contender for the award right now is Mosaku, who won at the British Academy Film Awards (known as the BAFTAs), another voting body that has Oscar overlap.  

Mosaku is a late season surprise in the category, as she was not on most award pundit’s radars until Actor and Academy Award nominations. Madigan is an outlier. Her nomination, theonly for “Weapons,” and the Academy historically ignores a traditional horror film such as this.  

My personal pick for this category is Mosaku. Her performance in “Sinners” is one of my favorites from 2025. For my prediction… all signs point toward Madigan. Because she is a veteran actor whose award campaign has been about her return to acting, there’s a narrative around her winning.  Don’t forget the dark horse and favorite to win earlier this season, Taylor. Though she only won a Golden Globe, don’t be surprised if they call her name next Sunday. 

Best Supporting Actor  

On paper, this category is straightforward. In my heart, this is the toughest decision I’ll make this season.  The nominees are Benicio Del Toro (“One Battle After Another”), Delroy Lindo (“Sinners”), Jacob Elordi (“Frankenstein”), Sean Penn (“One Battle After Another”) and Stellan Skarsgård (“Sentimental Value”).  

Penn has won BAFTA and the Actor; therefore, he is my prediction. His performance in “One Battle After Another,” is a showy villain role that typically wins at the Oscars, so it’s not far-fetched to see why he’s winning, but the two-time Academy Award winner is not necessarily hurting for a third win.  

My personal picks would be either Lindo or Skarsgård. They’re both two of my favorite performances of the year, with Lindo being my favorite from “Sinners.” These are two veteran actors who have never won before and have an insurmountable amount of love behind them and their performances. I see a world where either of them could win, with Skarsgård at the very least having a Golden Globe under his belt.  

Even though I want to believe something outside of the expected can happen, unless you have substantial reasoning behind a prediction that goes against the stats, you’re setting yourself up unnecessary misses on your prediction averages. I pick and choose the battles, but I’m mostly sticking to the stats this year.  

Best Adapted Screenplay 

Despite a stacked lineup of nominees, this is one of the nominees that you’re guaranteed to get right on Oscar night. The nominees are “Bugonia” (Will Tracy), “Frankenstein” (Guillermo Del Toro), “Hamnet” (Chloé Zhao and Maggie O’Farrell), “One Battle After Another” (Paul Thomas Anderson) and Train Dreams (Clint Bentley and Greg Kwedar).  

My pick and prediction are “One Battle After Another.” Never has someone needed an Oscar more than Anderson. His screenplay is expansive, poignant, and downright hilarious. In my mind this is a win for “Magnolia” and “Licorice Pizza.” 

I do want to shout out the screenplay for “Hamnet.” If there were any film to randomly upset, I would love to see that in some crazy weird world.  

Best Original Screenplay  

The most exciting award for me this season is because it’ll be the rightful win, in my opinion. The nominees are “Blue Moon” (Robert Kaplow), “It Was Just An Accident” (Jafar Panahi; Script collaborators Nader Saïvar, Shadmehr Rastin, Mehdi Mahmoudian), “Marty Supreme” (Ronald Bronstein and Josh Safdie), “Sentimental Value” (Eskil Vogt, Joachim Trier).  

“Sinners.” It’s “Sinners.” It has swept the awards season and will most likely win the Writers Guild of America (WGA) award on Mar 8. This is my pick and prediction. Easily my favorite screenplay of the year. Coogler winning this will be well deserved and incredibly satisfying. I’m getting involved with that.  

Best Director 

Another easy sweeper, but the race for this award is not as cut and dry as you’d think. The nominees are Chloe Zhao (“Hamnet”), Josh Safdie (“Marty Supreme”), Joachim Trier (“Sentimental Value”), Paul Thomas Anderson (“One Battle After Another”) and Ryan Coogler (“Sinners”).  

The 15-time Academy Award nominee, Anderson, is the favor to win this season, having swept everywhere and won the Director’s Guild of America (DGA) award. He’s my obvious prediction. I’m happy with this happening because he’s one of my favorite directors and did a helluva job with “One Battle After Another.”  

Coogler is my personal pick though. He cements himself as our next American auteur with his striking vision and resonant approach to storytelling. The amount of joy I’d feel if they called his name cannot be quantified.  

Best Actress  

The literal award sweeper this season. The nominees are Emma Stone (“Bugonia”), Jessie Buckley (“Hamnet”), Kate Hudson (“Song Sung Blue”), Renate Reinsve (“Sentimental Value”) and Rose Bryne (“If I Had Legs I’d Kick You).  

Buckley has won every major precursor this season. She’s my pick and prediction. Easily my favorite performance of the year. Well-deserved win.  

Best Actor  

The beautiful aspect of awards season is how it’s never over until it’s over, which is why it only took a week for this race to turn right on its head. The nominees are Ethan Hawke (“Blue Moon”), Leonardo DiCaprio (“One Battle After Another”), Michael B. Jordan (“Sinners”), Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme) and Wagner Moura (“The Secret Agent”).  

All throughout the season, the narrative has been that Chalamet will finally win the Oscar after his two previous nominations and a very close race last year. The critical and audience reception for “Marty Supreme” has been about his showy vehicle of a performance. We’ve all seen the numerous stunts from Chalamet for “Marty Supreme” and his Oscar campaign.But with a little over a week left until the envelope opens, I don’t think his name will be on that letter.  

Jordan can no longer be denied as a viable contender. There has been a strong defense online from fans and cinephiles alike for his performance and awards chances. This ardent love and support has now materialized into something substantial as he won the Actor award.  

Usually, I’d write this off as a thing SAG does. We’ve seen an Actor winner lose the Oscar before — Chalamet being the most recent. But for the case of Jordan, he’s the only nominee to have won an award with Academy overlap. Chalamet was unable to secure a BAFTA win, which went to British actor, Robert Adamayo. Despite being strong earlier this season in wins, the momentum for Jordan is undeniable.  

Jordan is my prediction, but Chalamet is my pick. These are two phenomenal performances, but I can’t wait to see Jordan have his moment on stage. I too was blown away by how Jordan made the twin roles of Smoke and Stack feel like two entirely different men playing them.  

Best Picture  

 The nominees are “Bugonia,” “F1,” “Frankenstein,” “Hamnet,” “Marty Supreme,” “One Battle After Another,” “The Secret Agent,” “Sentimental Value,” “Sinners” and “Train Dreams.”  

The correct way of predicting best picture is by going based off of who has won the major guild awards: BAFTA, DGA, PGA, SAG and WGA. These guilds are who the Academy voters most consist of. You don’t get best picture without winning one of these awards.  

At the moment, “One Battle After Another” has won BAFTA, DGA and PGA, along with Golden Globe and Critics Choice. It seems like an easy frontrunner for best picture. It has thecritical reception, the audience reception and strong package for Oscar wins.  

On awards night, win packages usually matter. What a film wins throughout the night can be telling as to how likely it’ll win best picture. Based off of my predictions, “One Battle After Another’s” win package is: Best Director, Best Adapted Screenplay, Best Supporting Actor and Best Editing.  

With all of these statistical advantages, I believe that “Sinners” still has a chance to win best picture.  

“Sinners” won Best Ensemble at the Actor awards. I believe it’ll win at the WGA award, and it has won at the American Cinema Editors “Eddie’s” Awards. It is having an undeniable moment right now.  

The film has become a favorite amongst general audiences; critics and awards pundits alike. The energy from its wins at the Actor awards was electric, to say the least. It is not unheard of for a movie to upset at the last minute.  

With my predicted win package of Best Screenplay, Best Cinematography, Best Score and Best Casting, there is still a way for “Sinners” to become this year’s best picture winner.  

It’s a cultural phenomenon that has revolutionized Black Cinema and original filmmaking. A genre-bending journey about culture, ancestry and trauma that speaks across generations. The most nominated film in Oscar history with 16 nominations.  

Despite the stacked odds and undeniable strength from the phenomenal front runner that is “One Battle After Another,” my pick and prediction for Best Picture is “Sinners.” 

My predictions are not final. I will be wracking my brain every day and even during the ceremony to figure out my thoughts about this year’s Oscars. Don’t take me as the end all be all for your basis of predictions. Do your own reseach and form your own opinions. My takeaway is that despite the awards frenzy, there’s always a method to the madness.